CLARITY Act Odds Crash to 27% as Senate Focus Turns Elsewhere
Prediction markets now put crypto's flagship market-structure bill at its lowest-ever odds after Senate Majority Leader John Thune deprioritized it behind Russia sanctions and nominee votes — though a revised draft is still quietly gaining Democratic support.
Wall Street's favorite crypto bill just took a hit — in the betting markets, if nowhere else.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has pushed the CLARITY Act down the priority list, opting instead to spend the chamber's limited floor time before the August 8 recess on Russia sanctions legislation and a backlog of federal nominees. Prediction markets reacted immediately: odds that the bill becomes law in 2026 have crashed to just 27%, the lowest reading since the legislation was introduced.
A revised draft is still alive
Despite the setback, negotiations haven't stalled entirely. A reworked version of the bill is reportedly gaining traction with Democrats who previously withheld support. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto said the revised text could "resolve this issue once and for all," suggesting the sticking points — jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC, and how stablecoins are treated — are closer to resolution than the collapsing odds imply.
Industry groups have been pushing Thune to begin cloture procedures regardless, and Coinbase's chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad said he's still hopeful for a Senate vote as early as August 3.
What's actually at stake
The CLARITY Act would give the crypto industry something it has wanted since 2021: a statutory line between SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, with the CFTC gaining explicit authority over spot digital asset markets. The banking industry broadly supports the framework but wants "surgical" edits — chiefly, guardrails to stop stablecoins from directly competing with bank deposits for consumer dollars.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins has signaled the agency won't wait around: if Congress fails to pass a bill, the SEC is prepared to issue its own crypto market-structure rules unilaterally. That's a real fallback, but a weaker one — agency rules can be rewritten by the next administration in a way that an act of Congress can't.
Signal take: A 27% prediction-market probability is a sentiment reading, not a legislative death sentence — bills routinely get resurrected in must-pass end-of-year packages. But the delay matters: every week without statutory clarity is another week the SEC's rulemaking track stays the more likely near-term outcome, which is a materially weaker form of certainty for builders and institutions sizing up US market entry.