Standard Chartered Delays $2T Stablecoin Forecast to 2030 as Usage Accelerates

Standard Chartered has pushed its $2 trillion stablecoin market forecast from 2028 to 2030, citing a year of stagnant supply growth. The bank said the slowdown appears cyclical, while stablecoin usage has continued to expand significantly.

Supply Growth Stalls, Forecast Moves Back

Stablecoin supply has remained between $300 billion and $320 billion for the past 12 months and currently stands at approximately $309 billion, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research.

The bank still expects the market to reach $2 trillion, but now estimates that milestone will arrive two years later than previously projected. Kendrick attributed the delay to weak crypto market activity rather than a structural decline in stablecoin demand.

Previous periods of flat or falling supply were followed by renewed growth when broader crypto markets recovered, the report noted. That pattern underpins Standard Chartered’s view that the current pause may not alter the market’s longer-term trajectory.

Usage Rises Despite Flat Supply

Transaction activity has continued to grow even as the amount of stablecoins in circulation has leveled off. Raw on-chain transfer value reached a monthly record of $19 trillion in May, while average monthly volume has come in just below $10 trillion so far this year, up from $4 trillion in 2025.

Average monthly stablecoin velocity — the number of times each dollar changes hands — has also doubled to roughly 30 times this year from 15 times in 2025.

The report highlighted a sharp difference between the two largest stablecoins:

• USDT: Monthly velocity has remained near seven times, reflecting its role as a dollar savings instrument in emerging markets.
• USDC: Monthly velocity has climbed to approximately 80 times, up from 45 times in 2025, as it is used more for payments, financial transactions and early transactions between AI agents.

Kendrick expects the most intense competition to emerge in developed-market payments and financial transactions. Potential challengers include Open USD, M^0 and A+, a planned multi-bank network that would allow participating banks to issue a shared stablecoin and retain reserve income.

What This Means

For Solana and other high-throughput blockchain ecosystems, the data points to a market where stablecoin activity can expand without a corresponding increase in total supply. Higher velocity could support demand for fast, low-cost settlement rails, but the report does not establish a direct shift in stablecoin activity toward Solana.

Regulation remains a central variable. The U.S. GENIUS Act, scheduled to take effect in January 2027, could encourage competition from bank-backed and multi-issuer stablecoins if other jurisdictions adopt similar rules. Standard Chartered cautioned that stricter global alignment could also challenge USDT’s dominance in emerging markets and reshape where stablecoin liquidity is issued, held and transferred.